This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. View live updates on electoral votes by state for presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on ABC News. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. Republicans currently hold 20 of the 34 seats at stake in 2022. Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. Search our Site: . Read the analysis ($). [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Arizona. His name still appeared on the primary ballot. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. Ellis said that these districts, where the incumbent won re-election with less than 52 percent of the vote, could be "some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections. Fifty-two districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election, five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. The court later fixed March 15, 2022, as the filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. Less clear is what the race will do to his . November 7:CA-03 moves from Leans to Likely R; CA-06, WA-10 Safe to Likely D; CA-13, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; MI-11 Likely to Safe D; CO-07, GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; GA-12, NC-07, NV-02, SC-01 Likely to Safe R; NV-01 Leans D to Toss-up; NV-04 Toss-up to Leans D. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. All 435 districts were up for election. Republicans will win the House of Representatives, CNN projects, in a victory that will fall short of their hopes of a "red wave" but thwart President Joe Biden's domestic agenda and will. Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country. Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . Search our Site: . Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 (60.2%) faced contested primaries. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. The court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. that guide every prediction he makes. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . Quebec Election 2022 Date: October 3rd, 2022. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. This was 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. Alaska. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. 26th February 2023. Republicans 29 seats not up for election. This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. The 2022 election was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. 2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. RCP House Map Race Changes. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. Click here! This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Redistricting will change everything. November 7: CA-22, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 move from Toss-up to Tilts R; CA-49, IN-01, NY-03 Leans to Tilts D; CT-05, NV-01 Tilts D to Toss-up; IL-08, WA-06 Safe to Likely D; ME-02, MN-02 Toss-up to Leans D; NY-22 Leans to Tilts R; OH-01 Toss-up to Leans R; TX-28 Tilts to Leans D; VA-02 Tilts to Leans R; WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. By Happy Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022 u.s. house of representatives. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. Click on the to see the other two. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Each partys seat count in scenarios where it wins the House in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations. The party gained a net of nine districts. If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Table 1 shows that the presidents party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections since World War II and Senate seats in 13 of 19. The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Tennessee, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts.The elections coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. MONTREAL, Que. Clickme! !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. Click here to change which version of the model you see. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. Benjamin Kalu. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died on August 3, 2022. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania fixed March 28, 2022, as the filing deadline for General Assembly candidates. Policy: Christopher Nelson Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. 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